The national average gas price hit $3.942 on March 23 — up $1.11 since the war began. In four weeks, the oil shock has now fully worked through every supply chain lag we warned you about. This is no longer a preview. It is the bill.
What Has Already Hit
Every price wave we identified in Week 1 has now fully landed. Packaged goods are up 3–6% at major chains. Dairy is up 4–5%. Meat is up 5–7%. Name brand and store brand prices are now both moving — the gap between them has widened, but neither is stable.
Restaurant menu prices have begun moving. Major casual dining chains reported food cost ratios above 33% in their most recent internal reviews, triggering automatic pricing protocols. Expect your regular restaurant tab to be 7–10% higher than February by next weekend.
What Is Still Coming in the Next Two Weeks
Goldman Sachs warned this week that every $10 increase in oil prices adds approximately 0.3% to U.S. inflation. Brent has risen more than $40 since February 28. That is a 1.2% inflation contribution from oil alone — before the multiplier effects through food, transport, and manufacturing work fully through the CPI.
The March CPI print — due in mid-April — will be the most politically significant inflation report since 2022. Every household in America will have felt these prices before the number is published. The political damage, for whichever party owns it, will be real.
Agricultural inputs are the next wave. Fertilizer prices, which track natural gas and crude, have risen 18–22% since the war began. Spring planting season starts in April. The cost increase in corn, soy, and wheat production will show up in grocery prices for those products in May and June — not now, but the trajectory is already locked in.
The Bulk Staple Window Is Closing
We have recommended bulk staples — rice, dried beans, oats, flour — as the best inflation hedge since Week 1. That window remains open but is narrowing. Transportation cost increases are beginning to reach bulk goods. A modest stock-up now, before April, is still worthwhile. But the gap between bulk staple prices and packaged goods prices is no longer as wide as it was three weeks ago.
The Dollar Total at Week 4
A household spending $475/month on groceries, $165/month on gas, $200/month on utilities, and $400/month on dining and delivery is now looking at approximately $110–140/month more than February. Annualized at current levels: $1,320–1,680 in additional household cost.
If $4.00 gas is crossed — which is less than $0.06 away today — revise that annual number to $1,500–1,900 before accounting for the April CPI adjustments that will follow.
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— K. Lorraine, The Hormuz Effect
Sources: AAA Fuel Gauge Report (March 23, 2026) · Goldman Sachs via Barchart (March 19, 2026) · EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (March 10, 2026) · National Restaurant Association data · USDA Economic Research Service
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