DAILY BRIEF — MARCH 13, 2026 · DAY 13
Today's Numbers
National Avg Gas | $3.63/gal ▲ +$0.72 since Feb 28 · Source: AAA |
WTI Crude | $96.11/bbl · Source: EIA |
Brent Crude | $100.46 settled Mar 12 · Peaked near $120 · Source: IEA |
Hormuz Flows | <10% of pre-war levels · Source: IEA OMR Mar 12 |
Gulf Output Cut | ≥10 mb/d · Source: IEA OMR |
Global Supply Loss | 8 mb/d in March · Source: IEA OMR |
Global LNG Supply | Down 20% · Source: IEA |
California Gas | $5.42/gal · Source: AAA |
US Crude Inventories | 443.1M barrels (2% below 5-yr avg) · Source: EIA week ending Mar 6 |
01 — New Supreme Leader Issues First Statement: Hormuz Stays Closed
Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei delivered his first public statement Thursday, declaring the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as a "tool to pressure the enemy." He called for all U.S. military bases in the Middle East to shut immediately, warning those that don't comply will be attacked. The statement was read aloud on state TV with his photo displayed — Khamenei himself did not appear. Oil prices extended gains immediately following the broadcast. This is the clearest signal yet that Iran's leadership transition has not moderated the regime's posture. Khamenei is 56, newly installed, and has every political incentive to project defiance.
02 — IEA: This Is the Largest Oil Supply Disruption in the History of the Global Market
The IEA's March Oil Market Report, released Thursday, opens with language the agency has never used before: this war is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market — more than double the scale of the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which removed roughly 5 mb/d. Here is every figure from the report:
Hormuz flows have fallen from 20 mb/d pre-war to less than 10% of that level
Gulf producers have cut total output by at least 10 mb/d — roughly 10% of world demand
Global oil supply projected to fall 8 mb/d in March
Brent futures peaked within touching distance of $120/barrel in the opening days of the war
Global LNG supply is down 20% — the world's largest LNG facility, Ras Laffan in Qatar, shut since March 2
The 400M barrel IEA emergency release is explicitly described as a stop-gap, not a solution
Global observed oil inventories stand at 8.2 billion barrels — highest since February 2021 — but being drawn down rapidly
More than 30% of global urea trade moves through Hormuz — fertilizer supply and food prices are next in the cascade
Per EIA (week ending March 6): U.S. crude inventories at 443.1 million barrels, 2% below the 5-year average. Refineries running at 90.8% capacity. U.S. production forecast at 13.6 mb/d for 2026.
03 — Iraq Oil Ports Halt All Operations After Tanker Strikes
Two foreign oil tankers in Iraqi waters were set ablaze Thursday by Iranian attacks, killing at least one crew member. Thirty-eight others were rescued. Iraq subsequently halted all operations at its southern oil ports. Separately: fuel storage tanks at Oman's Duqm port caught fire after what appeared to be an Iranian drone strike. Iranian drones hit fuel tanks in northern Bahrain. Two drones fell near Dubai International Airport, injuring four people. A Japanese-flagged container ship sustained hull damage while anchored 60 nautical miles southwest of Hormuz. The total commercial vessel attack count since February 28 now stands at 19 or more.
04 — KC-135 Refueling Tanker Crashes in Iraq — 4 of 6 Crew Killed
A U.S. Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker crashed in western Iraq on Thursday. Four of six crew members were killed. U.S. Central Command stated the cause was not hostile fire or friendly fire. The KC-135 is the backbone of U.S. aerial refueling operations, directly supporting the sustained bombing campaign over Iran. Rescue operations were underway for the two remaining crew members at time of publication.
05 — Russia-U.S. Energy Talks Open · IMO Calls Extraordinary Session
The Kremlin confirmed Thursday that discussions are underway between Moscow and Washington on energy market stabilization. A Kremlin spokesperson called potential cooperation "an important factor in stabilizing those markets" while acknowledging it is "too early to speak about any effective cooperation." Separately, the International Maritime Organization announced an extraordinary session next week to address the Hormuz shipping threat — the first of its kind in the agency's history. Markets were not reassured: the S&P 500 fell 1.4% and the Dow dropped 674 points on Thursday.
The bottom line: The IEA has now put a number on this crisis that reframes every previous comparison — this is not like 2022, not like 2011, not like 1973. It is larger than all of them. The 400 million barrel release buys weeks, not months. If Hormuz remains below 10% of normal flow through April, the EIA's own models show shut-in production peaking in Iraq, then spreading to Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. Gas at $4.00 nationally is no longer a Goldman scenario — it is the base case.
We are tracking every data point. Back here tomorrow.
— K. Lorraine, The Hormuz Effect
Sources: IEA Oil Market Report March 2026 (iea.org) · EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report week ending March 6, 2026 (eia.gov) · AAA Fuel Gauge Report state averages March 13, 2026 (gasprices.aaa.com) · NPR · CBS News · CNN · ABC News · NBC News
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