If the Strait Stays Shut for 5 Weeks, Here's Exactly What Happens to Gas Prices in Your State

Six days into Operation Epic Fury, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The US Navy has established a blockade posture. Iranian tankers are not moving. And the question every American driver is now quietly asking is the same one every energy economist is loudly debating: how bad does this get, and how fast?

We ran the numbers. Using EIA regional supply data, Goldman Sachs' $100/barrel scenario, and AAA's state-level pricing history, here is exactly what happens to gas prices in every region of the United States if the Strait stays shut for five full weeks — and which states will feel it first, hardest, and longest.

Why Five Weeks Is the Critical Threshold

Energy markets work on inventory buffers. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds roughly 350 million barrels. Commercial inventories add another 250–280 million barrels in the pipeline at any given moment. At current consumption rates of about 20 million barrels per day, the US has meaningful cushion — but that cushion erodes faster than most people realize once a major supply route closes.

The five-week mark is where Goldman Sachs models show crude breaking through $100/barrel. Below five weeks, the market absorbs the shock through inventory drawdown and price increases are significant but manageable. Beyond five weeks, the math changes. Refineries start rationing inputs. Regional spot markets decouple from national benchmarks. And the price increases stop being linear.

We are currently at Day 6. The clock is running.


The National Picture: Week by Week

Here is the trajectory if Hormuz remains disrupted and no emergency SPR release occurs:

Week 1–2 (Now):National average $3.31–$3.55. WTI crude at $88–$94/barrel. Prices rising but orderly. Consumers noticing at the pump but not yet changing behavior significantly.

Week 3: National average $3.55–$3.75. Crude pushes toward $96. Airlines begin filing fuel surcharge increases. Trucking companies activate escalation clauses in shipping contracts. The grocery lag begins — you won't see it at the store yet, but the orders are being renegotiated.

Week 4: National average $3.75–$3.95. This is the political danger zone. Historical data shows consumer confidence drops sharply when gas crosses $3.75. Discretionary spending pulls back. The White House begins internal SPR release discussions.

Week 5: National average $4.00–$4.30. Crude at or above $100/barrel. Goldman's base case scenario is fully realized. At this point the ripple effects are no longer ripples — trucking costs, airline fares, heating oil, and agricultural inputs are all moving simultaneously. The inflation print for March will be ugly when it comes out in April.


The State-by-State Breakdown

Not all states are equally exposed. The differences come down to three factors: proximity to domestic refineries, state gasoline tax rates, and whether the state uses a special reformulated blend that limits supply alternatives.

Most Exposed States (Expect $4.50–$5.50 at Week 5)

California — Currently $4.67, Projected $5.20–$5.50
California is structurally the most exposed state in the union. It requires a unique reformulated gasoline blend that can only be produced by a handful of in-state refineries. There is almost no ability to import cheaper fuel from other states when supply gets tight. Add California's $0.68/gallon state tax — the highest in the country — and you have a state that starts high and spikes fast. The Central Valley, where residents drive long distances on lower incomes, will be hit hardest.

Hawaii — Currently $4.45, Projected $5.00–$5.30
Everything in Hawaii is shipped. There are no pipeline connections to the mainland. When ocean freight costs rise with fuel prices, Hawaii gets hit by the price of oil twice — once as a consumer of gasoline, and once as a recipient of everything else that travels by ship. The island state has essentially no buffer.

Washington State — Currently $4.12, Projected $4.70–$5.00
Washington relies heavily on West Coast refinery supply chains that are already stretched. The state also has a new carbon pricing mechanism that adds a cost layer on top of market prices. Expect Washington to cross $5.00 before California does in percentage terms.

Oregon — Currently $3.98, Projected $4.55–$4.85
Similar exposure to Washington with slightly lower starting point. Portland metro will cross $5.00 within four weeks at current trajectory.

Nevada — Currently $3.89, Projected $4.40–$4.70
Nevada has no refineries. Everything is trucked in from California or Arizona. When California prices spike, Nevada follows within 48–72 hours with an added transportation premium.


Moderately Exposed States (Expect $3.80–$4.30 at Week 5)

New England (CT, MA, RI, VT, ME, NH) — Currently $3.35–$3.55, Projected $3.90–$4.20
New England is geographically isolated from the Gulf Coast refinery complex. It depends heavily on imports and on the Colonial Pipeline for refined products. When crude spikes, the East Coast distribution network tightens from the top down — New England feels it before the Mid-Atlantic does.

New York — Currently $3.28, Projected $3.85–$4.10
New York City's specific blend requirements and high state tax ($0.47/gallon) create a floor that moves up fast with crude. Upstate New York, which is more rural and car-dependent, will see proportionally larger budget impacts than the city.

Illinois — Currently $3.42, Projected $3.90–$4.15
Chicago uses the same reformulated blend as California (though it can source it from Midwest refineries). The Chicago spot market can decouple from national benchmarks during supply stress, leading to sudden local spikes.

Alaska — Currently $3.95, Projected $4.50–$4.80
The great paradox: Alaska produces oil but has among the highest gas prices in the country because it lacks refinery capacity. Crude has to leave the state, get refined elsewhere, and come back as gasoline — a round trip that adds cost.


Most Insulated States (Expect $3.20–$3.60 at Week 5)

Texas — Currently $2.89, Projected $3.20–$3.45
Texas sits on top of the US refinery complex. The Gulf Coast is home to roughly 45% of US refining capacity. When the national market tightens, Texas refineries actually benefit from higher margins — and Texas consumers are at the front of the supply line. The state tax is also among the lowest at $0.20/gallon.

Louisiana — Currently $2.81, Projected $3.10–$3.35
Same story as Texas. Baton Rouge and the surrounding area is one of the densest concentrations of refinery infrastructure in the world. Louisiana consumers are as insulated from global supply shocks as any Americans can be.

Mississippi — Currently $2.77, Projected $3.05–$3.30
Lowest gas prices in the country right now, and the most protected from the Hormuz spike. That said, Mississippi has among the highest rates of vehicle miles traveled per capita and lowest average household incomes — so even a $0.50/gallon increase is proportionally significant.

Oklahoma — Currently $2.92, Projected $3.20–$3.45
Oklahoma sits in the middle of the US pipeline network and close to refinery capacity. Cushing, Oklahoma is actually the physical delivery point for WTI crude futures — prices here are as close to the source as you can get.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri — Currently $2.85–$2.98, Projected $3.15–$3.50
Midwest states with good pipeline access and low state taxes. These are the buffer states — they'll feel the national trend but later and less severely than coasts.


What the Government Can Do — And the Limits of Each Tool

Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release
The SPR holds about 350 million barrels. A release of 30–50 million barrels (what the Biden administration did in 2022) typically drops prices $0.25–$0.40/gallon for 4–6 weeks. It buys time but doesn't solve the underlying supply disruption. The current administration has signaled reluctance to use it early, preferring to keep it as leverage.

Federal Gas Tax Holiday
Congress could suspend the $0.18/gallon federal gas tax. This has been proposed multiple times since 2022 and has never passed. The political coalition to do it doesn't exist — Democrats worry it stimulates driving and hurts climate goals, Republicans don't want to give the current administration a win.

Emergency OPEC+ Coordination
The US can ask Saudi Arabia to open the taps. The Saudis have both the capacity and the political incentive (they are not friends with Iran). The question is what they want in return. In 2022 they said no to Biden. The current administration's relationship with Riyadh is different — this is the most likely meaningful relief valve if talks happen quickly.


The Bottom Line

If the Strait reopens within two weeks, this is painful but manageable. Gas peaks around $3.75 nationally, $4.80 in California, and then retreats. The economic damage is real but contained.

If the Strait stays shut for five weeks, you are looking at $4.00+ nationally, $5.50 in California, a March inflation print that shocks markets, and a midterm electoral environment that is fundamentally reshaped.

The next two weeks are the critical window. We'll be tracking every data point and updating you every Thursday.

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Data sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), AAA Fuel Gauge Report, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research, Colonial Pipeline capacity data. Gas price projections are estimates based on historical price elasticity models and are not guaranteed forecasts.