With the Iran war entering its third week and the price of oil reaching nearly $105 a barrel, President Trump again urged NATO, China and other nations to help the U.S. secure the vital Strait of Hormuz. He called it a minor ask. Every major ally has publicly declined.
The refusals are being reported as a diplomatic story. They are actually an energy economics story — and it is one that will determine what you pay at the pump for the next 60 days.
Why the Coalition Matters to Markets
The oil market is not just pricing what is happening today. It is pricing what traders believe will happen over the next 30, 60, and 90 days. A credible naval coalition — even one that hadn't yet deployed — would signal to markets that Hormuz reopening was a matter of when, not if. Futures prices would fall immediately on that signal, pulling retail gas prices down within days.
Without a coalition, the market is pricing something else: an extended closure with no clear exit path. That is the scenario in which Goldman Sachs' models show crude staying above $100/bbl through the second quarter and the national gas average crossing $4.00.
Trump said he had asked seven countries to help escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz and said some had agreed, although he did not name them. Markets moved briefly on that statement, then reversed when no country confirmed participation.
Who Said What
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters he's working with allies on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but it won't be a NATO mission. He said the U.K. "will not be drawn into the wider war."
Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told parliament: "We have not made any decisions whatsoever about dispatching escort ships. We are continuing to examine what Japan can do independently and what can be done within the legal framework."
Greece will also not engage in any military operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Australia said it has not been asked to contribute and will not be sending ships. China called for a ceasefire but has not committed ships, saying only that it "calls on all parties to immediately cease military actions."
Why They're Saying No
The refusals share a common thread that has nothing to do with loyalty and everything to do with legal and political exposure. Most U.S. allies opposed this war to begin with, which makes them less inclined to provide support for it. There is also a practical issue: getting ships to that area takes significant time.
There is also a cost-benefit calculation that every ally is running quietly. Sending warships into a strait where Iran is attacking commercial vessels and laying mines exposes those nations to direct military confrontation — a confrontation that serves U.S. strategic interests more than their own. The energy price pain is real, but it is not yet acute enough to justify that risk. The threshold for "acute enough" is roughly $120/bbl sustained for 30 days. We are not there yet.
The One Country That Could Change Everything
China is the wild card. China receives 45% of its oil via the Strait of Hormuz. No country has more to lose from an extended closure. Beijing is in quiet talks with Tehran about selective passage for Chinese-flagged vessels — the same approach India and Pakistan have used. If China cuts a bilateral deal with Iran rather than joining a U.S.-led coalition, it gets its oil and leaves Western-aligned nations stranded. That outcome — a two-tier Hormuz — would be structurally bullish for U.S. gas prices for the remainder of the year.
Trump has suggested the China trip planned for March 31 could be called off depending on Beijing's decision on warship deployment. That linkage — trade summit for Hormuz support — is the most significant geopolitical trade being made right now. Watch it closely.
The Number That Moves Your Wallet
The national average gas price is $3.718 as of March 16. Every week the coalition question remains unresolved, that number climbs approximately $0.08–0.12. The $4.00 threshold — the historical level at which consumer spending behavior changes significantly — is now 5–6 weeks away at current trajectory, assuming no resolution.
If a coalition is announced before then, prices retreat. If the bilateral deal model wins — China, India, Pakistan cutting individual deals with Iran while the U.S. gets nothing — prices do not retreat. They accelerate.
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— K. Lorraine, The Hormuz Effect
Data sources: AAA Fuel Gauge Report (March 16, 2026) · Reuters/Kpler Gulf export data · NPR (March 16, 2026) · CNN (March 16, 2026) · Al Jazeera (March 16, 2026) · EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (March 10, 2026)
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