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THE HORMUZ EFFECT — WEEKLY BRIEF #1 March 12, 2026 · By K. Lorraine
Today was the most intense day of the war. Three ships are burning in or near the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA announced the largest emergency oil reserve release in history. And as of tonight, the national average gas price stands at $3.578 per gallon. AAA Fuel Prices
Here is what happened today, what it actually means for prices, and what the next two weeks look like.
The Numbers Right Now
National avg gas: $3.578/gal as of March 11 AAA Fuel Prices — up $0.51 since Feb 28
Diesel: $4.72/gallon — up nearly $0.89 over the past week Fox News
Brent crude peaked at $126/barrel intraday — settling back after diplomatic signals Wikipedia
Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic: down 95% in the first week of March NBC News
Total UKMTO incidents since Feb 28: 17 reported — 13 attack reports and 4 reports of suspicious activity CNBC
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Today's Big Move: The IEA's Record Release — And Why It Didn't Work
The International Energy Agency announced that member countries have unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves NBC News — the largest emergency release in the agency's 50-year history.
Markets barely blinked.
Here's why: Iran's rapid and extensive retaliation against shipping has severed a vital artery in global supply chains, as the flow of oil, refined products, LNG and chemicals grinds to a near halt. CNBC The problem isn't supply sitting in storage — it's supply that can't physically move. You can release 400 million barrels from reserves, but if tankers can't transit Hormuz to deliver it, the barrels stay landlocked.
This is the same dynamic we've explained since Day 1: the Hormuz crisis is a transit problem, not a production problem. Reserve releases buy time. They don't reopen a strait.
Three Ships Attacked — The Worst Day Yet
Three vessels were hit by suspected projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf today, making it one of the heaviest days of attacks since the war began. Bloomberg
A cargo vessel called Mayuree Naree was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, the Royal Thai Navy confirmed. Star Bulk reported its ship Star Gwyneth was also hit, as was a third vessel — a container ship — according to UK Maritime Trade Operations. CNBC
Iran claimed responsibility for attacking at least two of the ships. The IRGC said they had "ignored warnings" before being struck. CNN
Trump responded by vowing "death, fire and fury" if Iran keeps blocking the strait Fox News — and simultaneously encouraged oil tankers to use it anyway, saying "I think they should use the strait." CNN With ships actively burning in the waterway, insurance markets and shipping companies are not taking that advice.
The Mining Threat
Sources told CNN that Tehran had begun laying mines in the key waterway. CNN Trump said he didn't believe Iran had been successful, and US Central Command confirmed it had eliminated 16 Iranian minelayers near the strait. NBC News But the threat alone — regardless of how many mines actually made it into the water — is enough to keep commercial shipping away. Insurers pulled P&I coverage for the strait weeks ago. No coverage means no transit, regardless of what the president says.
The War Is Widening
The UAE scrambled fighter jets in response to missile attacks and incoming drones from Iran, with air defense systems intercepting ballistic missiles and two drones coming down near Dubai International Airport. Fox News
Iran launched its 37th wave of attacks, firing missiles at a US base in Kuwait, with Kuwait's National Guard downing eight drones targeting the country. Al Jazeera
Iran also launched what it called its "most intense operation since the beginning of the war," firing advanced ballistic missiles toward Tel Aviv and Haifa. NBC News
This matters for energy markets because every escalation that pulls Gulf Arab states deeper into the conflict raises the risk that additional port infrastructure gets targeted. Iran's armed forces have already threatened to target ports and docks across the region if Iran's own ports are attacked. CNN The Port of Salalah in Oman — a major regional shipping hub — has halted operations until further notice. CNN
What the Next Two Weeks Determine
The $4.00 national average is now approximately $0.42 away. At the current rate of increase we cross it before March 24.
Three things to watch:
The IEA release hitting the physical market. 400 million barrels sounds enormous. Spread across IEA member nations over 30–60 days, it's a meaningful but not decisive cushion. Watch whether it slows the rate of price increases — it won't reverse them while Hormuz stays closed.
Trump's diplomatic signals. Trump has given mixed signals about when the war might end CBS News, saying he'll end it "soon, when he wants to." Every hint of talks moves oil down $10–15/barrel within hours. Every hard-line follow-up erases those gains. The whipsaw is your early warning system — when it stops happening and prices just drift up steadily, that means the market has stopped pricing in a near-term resolution.
Iran's next escalation threshold. Tehran has now threatened that it won't allow "one liter of oil" to leave the Middle East until US and Israeli attacks cease. NBC News Whether that stays rhetoric or becomes operational targeting of Gulf Arab export terminals is the single biggest variable in the price outlook.
Your Wallet This Week
Gas is now up roughly $0.50/gallon since Operation Epic Fury began on Feb 28. Fox News For a household filling a 15-gallon tank weekly, that's $7.50 more per fill-up — $390 annualized at current prices, before any further increases.
Diesel is the number that should worry you more. At $4.72/gallon, diesel has risen faster and harder than gasoline. Fox News Diesel powers the trucks that move 70% of US freight. The trucking surcharge clauses that kick in automatically when diesel crosses certain thresholds are now fully active across most shipping contracts. The grocery and retail price increases that result typically show up on shelves 2–3 weeks after diesel spikes. That window is closing.
The one actionable move this week: fill up Monday or Tuesday morning. The weekly pricing pattern holds even during spikes — stations reprice upward toward the weekend. And with active ship attacks in the news cycle today, there's a reasonable chance stations push prices higher Wednesday and Thursday before any diplomatic signal has a chance to pull crude back down.
Next Thursday we'll have the first full read on whether the IEA release is slowing the price trajectory — and whether any of today's diplomatic noise turns into actual talks.
Every Thursday. Free. No noise.
— K. Lorraine, The Hormuz Effect
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The Hormuz Effect is an independent newsletter produced for informational purposes only. Nothing in this publication constitutes financial, investment, legal, or political advice, and no reader-advisor relationship is created by subscribing or reading. All gas price projections and economic estimates are based on publicly available data and historical models — they are not guaranteed forecasts, and actual outcomes may differ materially. The Hormuz Effect is not affiliated with any political party, campaign, candidate, political action committee, or advocacy organization. Analysis of political topics reflects data and historical patterns only and does not constitute an endorsement of any candidate, party, or policy position. References to third-party apps, services, or websites are for informational purposes only. Data sources are cited within each article. While we make every effort to ensure accuracy, readers should independently verify information before making financial or other decisions. © 2026 The Hormuz Effect. All rights reserved.